Generalized extreme value distributionIn probability theory and statistics, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is a family of continuous probability distributions developed within extreme value theory to combine the Gumbel, Fréchet and Weibull families also known as type I, II and III extreme value distributions. By the extreme value theorem the GEV distribution is the only possible limit distribution of properly normalized maxima of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables.
Gumbel distributionIn probability theory and statistics, the Gumbel distribution (also known as the type-I generalized extreme value distribution) is used to model the distribution of the maximum (or the minimum) of a number of samples of various distributions. This distribution might be used to represent the distribution of the maximum level of a river in a particular year if there was a list of maximum values for the past ten years. It is useful in predicting the chance that an extreme earthquake, flood or other natural disaster will occur.
Q–Q plotIn statistics, a Q–Q plot (quantile-quantile plot) is a probability plot, a graphical method for comparing two probability distributions by plotting their quantiles against each other. A point (x, y) on the plot corresponds to one of the quantiles of the second distribution (y-coordinate) plotted against the same quantile of the first distribution (x-coordinate). This defines a parametric curve where the parameter is the index of the quantile interval.
Probability distribution fittingProbability distribution fitting or simply distribution fitting is the fitting of a probability distribution to a series of data concerning the repeated measurement of a variable phenomenon. The aim of distribution fitting is to predict the probability or to forecast the frequency of occurrence of the magnitude of the phenomenon in a certain interval. There are many probability distributions (see list of probability distributions) of which some can be fitted more closely to the observed frequency of the data than others, depending on the characteristics of the phenomenon and of the distribution.
Fréchet distributionThe Fréchet distribution, also known as inverse Weibull distribution, is a special case of the generalized extreme value distribution. It has the cumulative distribution function where α > 0 is a shape parameter. It can be generalised to include a location parameter m (the minimum) and a scale parameter s > 0 with the cumulative distribution function Named for Maurice Fréchet who wrote a related paper in 1927, further work was done by Fisher and Tippett in 1928 and by Gumbel in 1958.
Weibull distributionIn probability theory and statistics, the Weibull distribution ˈwaɪbʊl is a continuous probability distribution. It models a broad range of random variables, largely in the nature of a time to failure or time between events. Examples are maximum one-day rainfalls and the time a user spends on a web page. The distribution is named after Swedish mathematician Waloddi Weibull, who described it in detail in 1939, although it was first identified by Maurice René Fréchet and first applied by to describe a particle size distribution.
Confidence intervalIn frequentist statistics, a confidence interval (CI) is a range of estimates for an unknown parameter. A confidence interval is computed at a designated confidence level; the 95% confidence level is most common, but other levels, such as 90% or 99%, are sometimes used. The confidence level, degree of confidence or confidence coefficient represents the long-run proportion of CIs (at the given confidence level) that theoretically contain the true value of the parameter; this is tantamount to the nominal coverage probability.
Heavy-tailed distributionIn probability theory, heavy-tailed distributions are probability distributions whose tails are not exponentially bounded: that is, they have heavier tails than the exponential distribution. In many applications it is the right tail of the distribution that is of interest, but a distribution may have a heavy left tail, or both tails may be heavy. There are three important subclasses of heavy-tailed distributions: the fat-tailed distributions, the long-tailed distributions, and the subexponential distributions.
Laplace distributionIn probability theory and statistics, the Laplace distribution is a continuous probability distribution named after Pierre-Simon Laplace. It is also sometimes called the double exponential distribution, because it can be thought of as two exponential distributions (with an additional location parameter) spliced together along the abscissa, although the term is also sometimes used to refer to the Gumbel distribution.
QuantileIn statistics and probability, quantiles are cut points dividing the range of a probability distribution into continuous intervals with equal probabilities, or dividing the observations in a sample in the same way. There is one fewer quantile than the number of groups created. Common quantiles have special names, such as quartiles (four groups), deciles (ten groups), and percentiles (100 groups). The groups created are termed halves, thirds, quarters, etc.
Cumulative frequency analysisCumulative frequency analysis is the analysis of the frequency of occurrence of values of a phenomenon less than a reference value. The phenomenon may be time- or space-dependent. Cumulative frequency is also called frequency of non-exceedance. Cumulative frequency analysis is performed to obtain insight into how often a certain phenomenon (feature) is below a certain value. This may help in describing or explaining a situation in which the phenomenon is involved, or in planning interventions, for example in flood protection.
Credible intervalIn Bayesian statistics, a credible interval is an interval within which an unobserved parameter value falls with a particular probability. It is an interval in the domain of a posterior probability distribution or a predictive distribution. The generalisation to multivariate problems is the credible region. Credible intervals are analogous to confidence intervals and confidence regions in frequentist statistics, although they differ on a philosophical basis: Bayesian intervals treat their bounds as fixed and the estimated parameter as a random variable, whereas frequentist confidence intervals treat their bounds as random variables and the parameter as a fixed value.
Confidence distributionIn statistical inference, the concept of a confidence distribution (CD) has often been loosely referred to as a distribution function on the parameter space that can represent confidence intervals of all levels for a parameter of interest. Historically, it has typically been constructed by inverting the upper limits of lower sided confidence intervals of all levels, and it was also commonly associated with a fiducial interpretation (fiducial distribution), although it is a purely frequentist concept.
Prediction intervalIn statistical inference, specifically predictive inference, a prediction interval is an estimate of an interval in which a future observation will fall, with a certain probability, given what has already been observed. Prediction intervals are often used in regression analysis.
QuartileIn statistics, a quartile is a type of quantile which divides the number of data points into four parts, or quarters, of more-or-less equal size. The data must be ordered from smallest to largest to compute quartiles; as such, quartiles are a form of order statistic. The three main quartiles are as follows: The first quartile (Q1) is defined as the middle number between the smallest number (minimum) and the median of the data set. It is also known as the lower quartile, as 25% of the data is below this point.
Interval estimationIn statistics, interval estimation is the use of sample data to estimate an interval of possible values of a parameter of interest. This is in contrast to point estimation, which gives a single value. The most prevalent forms of interval estimation are confidence intervals (a frequentist method) and credible intervals (a Bayesian method); less common forms include likelihood intervals and fiducial intervals.
Coverage probabilityIn statistics, the coverage probability, or coverage for short, is the probability that a confidence interval or confidence region will include the true value (parameter) of interest. It can be defined as the proportion of instances where the interval surrounds the true value as assessed by long-run frequency. The fixed degree of certainty pre-specified by the analyst, referred to as the confidence level or confidence coefficient of the constructed interval, is effectively the nominal coverage probability of the procedure for constructing confidence intervals.
Exponential distributionIn probability theory and statistics, the exponential distribution or negative exponential distribution is the probability distribution of the time between events in a Poisson point process, i.e., a process in which events occur continuously and independently at a constant average rate. It is a particular case of the gamma distribution. It is the continuous analogue of the geometric distribution, and it has the key property of being memoryless. In addition to being used for the analysis of Poisson point processes it is found in various other contexts.
Logistic distributionIn probability theory and statistics, the logistic distribution is a continuous probability distribution. Its cumulative distribution function is the logistic function, which appears in logistic regression and feedforward neural networks. It resembles the normal distribution in shape but has heavier tails (higher kurtosis). The logistic distribution is a special case of the Tukey lambda distribution.
VenezuelaVenezuela (ˌvɛnəˈzweɪlə ; beneˈswela), officially the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (República Bolivariana de Venezuela), is a country on the northern coast of South America, consisting of a continental landmass and many islands and islets in the Caribbean Sea. It has a territorial extension of , and its population was estimated at 29 million in 2022. The capital and largest urban agglomeration is the city of Caracas.
