Unit rootIn probability theory and statistics, a unit root is a feature of some stochastic processes (such as random walks) that can cause problems in statistical inference involving time series models. A linear stochastic process has a unit root if 1 is a root of the process's characteristic equation. Such a process is non-stationary but does not always have a trend. If the other roots of the characteristic equation lie inside the unit circle—that is, have a modulus (absolute value) less than one—then the first difference of the process will be stationary; otherwise, the process will need to be differenced multiple times to become stationary.
Partial autocorrelation functionIn time series analysis, the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) gives the partial correlation of a stationary time series with its own lagged values, regressed the values of the time series at all shorter lags. It contrasts with the autocorrelation function, which does not control for other lags. This function plays an important role in data analysis aimed at identifying the extent of the lag in an autoregressive (AR) model.
Autoregressive modelIn statistics, econometrics, and signal processing, an autoregressive (AR) model is a representation of a type of random process; as such, it is used to describe certain time-varying processes in nature, economics, behavior, etc. The autoregressive model specifies that the output variable depends linearly on its own previous values and on a stochastic term (an imperfectly predictable term); thus the model is in the form of a stochastic difference equation (or recurrence relation which should not be confused with differential equation).
Autoregressive–moving-average modelIn the statistical analysis of time series, autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) models provide a parsimonious description of a (weakly) stationary stochastic process in terms of two polynomials, one for the autoregression (AR) and the second for the moving average (MA). The general ARMA model was described in the 1951 thesis of Peter Whittle, Hypothesis testing in time series analysis, and it was popularized in the 1970 book by George E. P. Box and Gwilym Jenkins.
AutocorrelationAutocorrelation, sometimes known as serial correlation in the discrete time case, is the correlation of a signal with a delayed copy of itself as a function of delay. Informally, it is the similarity between observations of a random variable as a function of the time lag between them. The analysis of autocorrelation is a mathematical tool for finding repeating patterns, such as the presence of a periodic signal obscured by noise, or identifying the missing fundamental frequency in a signal implied by its harmonic frequencies.
Moving-average modelIn time series analysis, the moving-average model (MA model), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable. Together with the autoregressive (AR) model, the moving-average model is a special case and key component of the more general ARMA and ARIMA models of time series, which have a more complicated stochastic structure.
Stationary processIn mathematics and statistics, a stationary process (or a strict/strictly stationary process or strong/strongly stationary process) is a stochastic process whose unconditional joint probability distribution does not change when shifted in time. Consequently, parameters such as mean and variance also do not change over time. If you draw a line through the middle of a stationary process then it should be flat; it may have 'seasonal' cycles around the trend line, but overall it does not trend up nor down.
Time seriesIn mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A time series is very frequently plotted via a run chart (which is a temporal line chart).
Root of unityIn mathematics, a root of unity, occasionally called a de Moivre number, is any complex number that yields 1 when raised to some positive integer power n. Roots of unity are used in many branches of mathematics, and are especially important in number theory, the theory of group characters, and the discrete Fourier transform. Roots of unity can be defined in any field. If the characteristic of the field is zero, the roots are complex numbers that are also algebraic integers.
Unit (ring theory)In algebra, a unit or invertible element of a ring is an invertible element for the multiplication of the ring. That is, an element u of a ring R is a unit if there exists v in R such that where 1 is the multiplicative identity; the element v is unique for this property and is called the multiplicative inverse of u. The set of units of R forms a group R^× under multiplication, called the group of units or unit group of R. Other notations for the unit group are R∗, U(R), and E(R) (from the German term Einheit).
Fourier analysisIn mathematics, Fourier analysis (ˈfʊrieɪ,_-iər) is the study of the way general functions may be represented or approximated by sums of simpler trigonometric functions. Fourier analysis grew from the study of Fourier series, and is named after Joseph Fourier, who showed that representing a function as a sum of trigonometric functions greatly simplifies the study of heat transfer. The subject of Fourier analysis encompasses a vast spectrum of mathematics.
Model selectionModel selection is the task of selecting a model from among various candidates on the basis of performance criterion to choose the best one. In the context of learning, this may be the selection of a statistical model from a set of candidate models, given data. In the simplest cases, a pre-existing set of data is considered. However, the task can also involve the design of experiments such that the data collected is well-suited to the problem of model selection.
Singular spectrum analysisIn time series analysis, singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is a nonparametric spectral estimation method. It combines elements of classical time series analysis, multivariate statistics, multivariate geometry, dynamical systems and signal processing. Its roots lie in the classical Karhunen (1946)–Loève (1945, 1978) spectral decomposition of time series and random fields and in the Mañé (1981)–Takens (1981) embedding theorem. SSA can be an aid in the decomposition of time series into a sum of components, each having a meaningful interpretation.
Autoregressive integrated moving averageIn statistics and econometrics, and in particular in time series analysis, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is a generalization of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. To better comprehend the data or to forecast upcoming series points, both of these models are fitted to time series data. ARIMA models are applied in some cases where data show evidence of non-stationarity in the sense of mean (but not variance/autocovariance), where an initial differencing step (corresponding to the "integrated" part of the model) can be applied one or more times to eliminate the non-stationarity of the mean function (i.
Feature selectionFeature selection is the process of selecting a subset of relevant features (variables, predictors) for use in model construction. Stylometry and DNA microarray analysis are two cases where feature selection is used. It should be distinguished from feature extraction. Feature selection techniques are used for several reasons: simplification of models to make them easier to interpret by researchers/users, shorter training times, to avoid the curse of dimensionality, improve data's compatibility with a learning model class, encode inherent symmetries present in the input space.
Imaginary unitThe imaginary unit or unit imaginary number (i) is a solution to the quadratic equation . Although there is no real number with this property, i can be used to extend the real numbers to what are called complex numbers, using addition and multiplication. A simple example of the use of i in a complex number is . Imaginary numbers are an important mathematical concept; they extend the real number system to the complex number system , in which at least one root for every nonconstant polynomial exists (see Algebraic closure and Fundamental theorem of algebra).
Dirichlet's unit theoremIn mathematics, Dirichlet's unit theorem is a basic result in algebraic number theory due to Peter Gustav Lejeune Dirichlet. It determines the rank of the group of units in the ring OK of algebraic integers of a number field K. The regulator is a positive real number that determines how "dense" the units are. The statement is that the group of units is finitely generated and has rank (maximal number of multiplicatively independent elements) equal to where r1 is the number of real embeddings and r2 the number of conjugate pairs of complex embeddings of K.
Nth rootIn mathematics, taking the nth root is an operation involving two numbers, the radicand and the index or degree. Taking the nth root is written as , where x is the radicand and n is the index (also sometimes called the degree). This is pronounced as "the nth root of x". The definition then of an nth root of a number x is a number r (the root) which, when raised to the power of the positive integer n, yields x: A root of degree 2 is called a square root (usually written without the n as just ) and a root of degree 3, a cube root (written ).
Square rootIn mathematics, a square root of a number x is a number y such that ; in other words, a number y whose square (the result of multiplying the number by itself, or ) is x. For example, 4 and −4 are square roots of 16 because . Every nonnegative real number x has a unique nonnegative square root, called the principal square root, which is denoted by where the symbol "" is called the radical sign or radix. For example, to express the fact that the principal square root of 9 is 3, we write .
Linear trend estimationLinear trend estimation is a statistical technique to aid interpretation of data. When a series of measurements of a process are treated as, for example, a sequences or time series, trend estimation can be used to make and justify statements about tendencies in the data, by relating the measurements to the times at which they occurred. This model can then be used to describe the behaviour of the observed data, without explaining it.
