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Lecture

Recurrence and Transience: Markov Chains

In course

MGT-484: Applied probability & stochastic processes

This course focuses on dynamic models of random phenomena, and in particular, the most popular classes of such models: Markov chains and Markov decision processes. We will also study applications in queuing theory, finance, project management, etc. ...

Description

This lecture covers the concepts of recurrence and transience in Markov chains, exploring the strong Markov property, first passage times, and the classification of states into recurrent and transient. The instructor explains how the chain behaves when reaching specific states and the implications of these behaviors on the long-term evolution of the chain.

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Instructor

Negar Kiyavash

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Related concepts (32)

Markov property

In probability theory and statistics, the term Markov property refers to the memoryless property of a stochastic process, which means that its future evolution is independent of its history. It is named after the Russian mathematician Andrey Markov. The term strong Markov property is similar to the Markov property, except that the meaning of "present" is defined in terms of a random variable known as a stopping time. The term Markov assumption is used to describe a model where the Markov property is assumed to hold, such as a hidden Markov model.

Markov chain

A Markov chain or Markov process is a stochastic model describing a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event. Informally, this may be thought of as, "What happens next depends only on the state of affairs now." A countably infinite sequence, in which the chain moves state at discrete time steps, gives a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC). A continuous-time process is called a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC).

Markov model

In probability theory, a Markov model is a stochastic model used to model pseudo-randomly changing systems. It is assumed that future states depend only on the current state, not on the events that occurred before it (that is, it assumes the Markov property). Generally, this assumption enables reasoning and computation with the model that would otherwise be intractable. For this reason, in the fields of predictive modelling and probabilistic forecasting, it is desirable for a given model to exhibit the Markov property.

Communication

Communication is usually defined as the transmission of information. The term can also refer to the message itself, or the field of inquiry studying these transmissions, also known as communication studies. The precise definition of communication is disputed. Controversial issues are whether unintentional or failed transmissions are included and whether communication does not just transmit meaning but also create it. Models of communication aim to provide a simplified overview of its main components and their interaction.

Hidden Markov model

A hidden Markov model (HMM) is a statistical Markov model in which the system being modeled is assumed to be a Markov process — call it — with unobservable ("hidden") states. As part of the definition, HMM requires that there be an observable process whose outcomes are "influenced" by the outcomes of in a known way.

Related lectures (32)

Hidden Markov Models: Primer

Introduces Hidden Markov Models, explaining the basic problems and algorithms like Forward-Backward, Viterbi, and Baum-Welch, with a focus on Expectation-Maximization.

Markov Chains: Introduction and Properties

Covers the introduction and properties of Markov chains, including transition matrices and stochastic processes.

Classification and Recurrence/Transience

Explores classification, communication, and irreducibility in Markov chains.

Continuous Time Markov Chains

Covers the basic theory for continuous time Markov chains and discusses communication, hitting probabilities, recurrence, and transience.

Recurrence and transience in markov chains