Lecture

Demographics: Population Growth and Determinants

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In course

HUM-471: Economic growth and sustainability I

This course examines growth from various angles: economic growth, growth in the use of resources, need for growth, limits to growth, sustainable growth, population growth. Although grounded in economics, it takes up elements from many other disciplines. ...

Description

This lecture explores the recent explosion of the world's population, with a focus on the growth concentrated in developing countries and the decline in some regions. It delves into the historical context of population growth, the impact of demographic changes on politics, and the theories of Reverend Malthus. The instructor discusses the main determinants of demographic change, including birth rates, mortality rates, and population structure. Through illustrations and historical data from England and Wales, the lecture highlights the evolution of fertility rates, life expectancy, and population size over time, providing insights into global population trends and forecasts.

Instructor

Philippe Thalmann

Philippe Thalmann was born in Lausanne in 1963. He graduated in Economics from the University of Lausanne in 1984, where he earned a postgraduate diploma in Economics in 1986. Mr. Thalmann entered the doctoral program in Economics of Harvard University (Cambridge, U.S.A.) in 1986, which he completed with a Ph.D. in 1990. His dissertation is entitled: "Essays in the Economics of Government Revenues and Spending". Returning to Switzerland, he was hired as an assistant professor first at the University of Geneva (teachings in Public Economics), then at the University of Lausanne (teachings in Econometrics and Introductory Economics). Since 1994, Mr. Thalmann is associate professor of Economics as the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology at Lausanne.

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Sociology

Applied sociology: Demography

Related concepts (32)

Population growth

Population growth is the increase in the number of people in a population or dispersed group. Actual global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually, or 1.1% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7.9 billion in 2020. The UN projected population to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.6 billion by mid-2030, 9.8 billion by mid-2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.

Birth rate

Birth rate, also known as natality, is the total number of live human births per 1,000 population for a given period divided by the length of the period in years. The number of live births is normally taken from a universal registration system for births; population counts from a census, and estimation through specialized demographic techniques. The birth rate (along with mortality and migration rates) is used to calculate population growth. The estimated average population may be taken as the mid-year population.

Total fertility rate

The total fertility rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a female over their lifetime if: they were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through their lifetime they were to live from birth until the end of their reproductive life. It is obtained by summing the single-year age-specific rates at a given time. , the total fertility rate varied widely across the world, from 0.78 in South Korea to 6.73 in Niger.

Projections of population growth

Population projections are attempts to show how the human population statistics might change in the future. These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being. Models of population growth take trends in human development and apply projections into the future. These models use trend-based-assumptions about how populations will respond to economic, social and technological forces to understand how they will affect fertility and mortality, and thus population growth.

Population dynamics

Population dynamics is the type of mathematics used to model and study the size and age composition of populations as dynamical systems. Population dynamics has traditionally been the dominant branch of mathematical biology, which has a history of more than 220 years, although over the last century the scope of mathematical biology has greatly expanded. The beginning of population dynamics is widely regarded as the work of Malthus, formulated as the Malthusian growth model.

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