Lecture

Model Selection: Non-Nested Model Selection

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MATH-341: Linear models

Regression modelling is a fundamental tool of statistics, because it describes how the law of a random variable of interest may depend on other variables. This course aims to familiarize students with linear models and some of their extensions, which lie a ...

Description

This lecture covers the theory and practice of model selection, focusing on non-nested models. It discusses automatic model selection and building, exploring criteria like AIC, BIC, and Cp statistic. The bias/variance tradeoff and expected prediction error are also explained, along with the concepts of design matrix, true model, and correct/wrong models. Various model selection criteria and methods like cross-validation, AIC, and simulation experiments are presented, providing insights into the tradeoff between model complexity and accuracy.

Instructors (2)

Victor Panaretos

Curriculum vitae Background & EducationPublications & PreprintsHonours & AwardsEditorial ActivitiesInvited Talks & Seminars Teaching & PhD PhD Students Ulysse Naepels, Nikitas Georgakis, Ho Yun Past EPFL PhD Students Andrea Kraus, Shahin Tavakoli, Mikael Kuusela, Yoav Zemel, Marie-Hélène Descary, Valentina Masarotto, Tomas Rubin, Tomas Masák, Laya Ghodrati, Kartik Waghmare, Leonardo Santoro Past EPFL PhD Students as codirector Matthieu Simeoni, Ophelia Miralles, Sonia Alouini, Timmy Rong Tian Tse, Krali M

Tomas Masák

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Statistics

Data analysis: Cross-validation

Related concepts (32)

Cross-validation (statistics)

Cross-validation, sometimes called rotation estimation or out-of-sample testing, is any of various similar model validation techniques for assessing how the results of a statistical analysis will generalize to an independent data set. Cross-validation is a resampling method that uses different portions of the data to test and train a model on different iterations. It is mainly used in settings where the goal is prediction, and one wants to estimate how accurately a predictive model will perform in practice.

Bias–variance tradeoff

In statistics and machine learning, the bias–variance tradeoff is the property of a model that the variance of the parameter estimated across samples can be reduced by increasing the bias in the estimated parameters. The bias–variance dilemma or bias–variance problem is the conflict in trying to simultaneously minimize these two sources of error that prevent supervised learning algorithms from generalizing beyond their training set: The bias error is an error from erroneous assumptions in the learning algorithm.

Model selection

Model selection is the task of selecting a model from among various candidates on the basis of performance criterion to choose the best one. In the context of learning, this may be the selection of a statistical model from a set of candidate models, given data. In the simplest cases, a pre-existing set of data is considered. However, the task can also involve the design of experiments such that the data collected is well-suited to the problem of model selection.

Statistical model validation

In statistics, model validation is the task of evaluating whether a chosen statistical model is appropriate or not. Oftentimes in statistical inference, inferences from models that appear to fit their data may be flukes, resulting in a misunderstanding by researchers of the actual relevance of their model. To combat this, model validation is used to test whether a statistical model can hold up to permutations in the data.

Feature selection

Feature selection is the process of selecting a subset of relevant features (variables, predictors) for use in model construction. Stylometry and DNA microarray analysis are two cases where feature selection is used. It should be distinguished from feature extraction. Feature selection techniques are used for several reasons: simplification of models to make them easier to interpret by researchers/users, shorter training times, to avoid the curse of dimensionality, improve data's compatibility with a learning model class, encode inherent symmetries present in the input space.

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