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Lecture

Forecasting Methods: Expert Approaches and Professional Predictions

Description

This lecture covers various forecasting methods, including using conventions, imitating others, and drawing inspiration from the past. It also delves into professional predictions for the Swiss economy, such as real GDP, private consumption, public investment, and more. The lecture explores the use of forecasts from different sources like SECO, KOF, and CS, and discusses the quality of anticipations by professionals in real estate and economic sectors.

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Related concepts (32)

Forecasting

Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and resolution itself.

Weather forecasting

Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the conditions of the atmosphere for a given location and time. People have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia and formally since the 19th century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere, land, and ocean and using meteorology to project how the atmosphere will change at a given place.

Demand forecasting

Demand forecasting refers to the process of predicting the quantity of goods and services that will be demanded by consumers at a future point in time. More specifically, the methods of demand forecasting entail using predictive analytics to estimate customer demand in consideration of key economic conditions. This is an important tool in optimizing business profitability through efficient supply chain management. Demand forecasting methods are divided into two major categories, qualitative and quantitative methods.

Ensemble forecasting

Ensemble forecasting is a method used in or within numerical weather prediction. Instead of making a single forecast of the most likely weather, a set (or ensemble) of forecasts is produced. This set of forecasts aims to give an indication of the range of possible future states of the atmosphere. Ensemble forecasting is a form of Monte Carlo analysis.

Economic sector

One classical breakdown of economic activity distinguishes three sectors: Primary: involves the retrieval and production of raw-material commodities, such as corn, coal, wood or iron. Miners, farmers and fishermen are all workers in the primary sector. Secondary: involves the transformation of raw or intermediate materials into goods, as in steel into cars, or textiles into clothing. Builders and dressmakers work in the secondary sector. Tertiary: involves the supplying of services to consumers and businesses, such as babysitting, cinemas or banking.

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