Lecture

Binary Choice Models and Time Series Analysis

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In course

FIN-403: Econometrics

The course covers basic econometric models and methods that are routinely applied to obtain inference results in economic and financial applications. ...

Description

This lecture covers binary choice models, such as probit and logit, used to model determinants of binary variables. It also delves into latent variable representation, estimation methods, and interpretation of model coefficients. Additionally, it explores univariate time series analysis, focusing on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for forecasting economic variables based on past patterns.

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Instructor

Andreas Fuster

Andreas Fuster is an Associate Professor of Finance at Swiss Finance Institute @ EPFL and a Research Fellow at the CEPR. Previously, he worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Swiss National Bank. Andreas's main research interests are in empirical finance, macroeconomics, and behavioral economics. His recent work has focused in particular on the effects of technological advances on household credit markets. Andreas’s research has been published in academic journals such as the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the Review of Economic Studies, the Journal of Finance, and the Review of Financial Studies. Andreas obtained his Ph.D. from Harvard University and also holds an M.Phil. from Oxford University and a B.A. from the University of Lausanne (Switzerland), all in economics.

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Statistics

Data analysis: Time series, Regression analysis

Related concepts (32)

Autoregressive integrated moving average

In statistics and econometrics, and in particular in time series analysis, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is a generalization of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. To better comprehend the data or to forecast upcoming series points, both of these models are fitted to time series data. ARIMA models are applied in some cases where data show evidence of non-stationarity in the sense of mean (but not variance/autocovariance), where an initial differencing step (corresponding to the "integrated" part of the model) can be applied one or more times to eliminate the non-stationarity of the mean function (i.

Autoregressive–moving-average model

In the statistical analysis of time series, autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) models provide a parsimonious description of a (weakly) stationary stochastic process in terms of two polynomials, one for the autoregression (AR) and the second for the moving average (MA). The general ARMA model was described in the 1951 thesis of Peter Whittle, Hypothesis testing in time series analysis, and it was popularized in the 1970 book by George E. P. Box and Gwilym Jenkins.

Moving-average model

In time series analysis, the moving-average model (MA model), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable. Together with the autoregressive (AR) model, the moving-average model is a special case and key component of the more general ARMA and ARIMA models of time series, which have a more complicated stochastic structure.

Logit

In statistics, the logit (ˈloʊdʒɪt ) function is the quantile function associated with the standard logistic distribution. It has many uses in data analysis and machine learning, especially in data transformations. Mathematically, the logit is the inverse of the standard logistic function , so the logit is defined as Because of this, the logit is also called the log-odds since it is equal to the logarithm of the odds where p is a probability. Thus, the logit is a type of function that maps probability values from to real numbers in , akin to the probit function.

Autoregressive model

In statistics, econometrics, and signal processing, an autoregressive (AR) model is a representation of a type of random process; as such, it is used to describe certain time-varying processes in nature, economics, behavior, etc. The autoregressive model specifies that the output variable depends linearly on its own previous values and on a stochastic term (an imperfectly predictable term); thus the model is in the form of a stochastic difference equation (or recurrence relation which should not be confused with differential equation).

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