Markov chainA Markov chain or Markov process is a stochastic model describing a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event. Informally, this may be thought of as, "What happens next depends only on the state of affairs now." A countably infinite sequence, in which the chain moves state at discrete time steps, gives a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC). A continuous-time process is called a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC).
ErgodicityIn mathematics, ergodicity expresses the idea that a point of a moving system, either a dynamical system or a stochastic process, will eventually visit all parts of the space that the system moves in, in a uniform and random sense. This implies that the average behavior of the system can be deduced from the trajectory of a "typical" point. Equivalently, a sufficiently large collection of random samples from a process can represent the average statistical properties of the entire process.
Ergodic theoryErgodic theory is a branch of mathematics that studies statistical properties of deterministic dynamical systems; it is the study of ergodicity. In this context, "statistical properties" refers to properties which are expressed through the behavior of time averages of various functions along trajectories of dynamical systems. The notion of deterministic dynamical systems assumes that the equations determining the dynamics do not contain any random perturbations, noise, etc.
Markov modelIn probability theory, a Markov model is a stochastic model used to model pseudo-randomly changing systems. It is assumed that future states depend only on the current state, not on the events that occurred before it (that is, it assumes the Markov property). Generally, this assumption enables reasoning and computation with the model that would otherwise be intractable. For this reason, in the fields of predictive modelling and probabilistic forecasting, it is desirable for a given model to exhibit the Markov property.
Ergodic hypothesisIn physics and thermodynamics, the ergodic hypothesis says that, over long periods of time, the time spent by a system in some region of the phase space of microstates with the same energy is proportional to the volume of this region, i.e., that all accessible microstates are equiprobable over a long period of time. Liouville's theorem states that, for a Hamiltonian system, the local density of microstates following a particle path through phase space is constant as viewed by an observer moving with the ensemble (i.
Hidden Markov modelA hidden Markov model (HMM) is a statistical Markov model in which the system being modeled is assumed to be a Markov process — call it — with unobservable ("hidden") states. As part of the definition, HMM requires that there be an observable process whose outcomes are "influenced" by the outcomes of in a known way.
Ergodic processIn physics, statistics, econometrics and signal processing, a stochastic process is said to be in an ergodic regime if an observable's ensemble average equals the time average. In this regime, any collection of random samples from a process must represent the average statistical properties of the entire regime. Conversely, a process that is not in ergodic regime is said to be in non-ergodic regime. One can discuss the ergodicity of various statistics of a stochastic process.
Markov propertyIn probability theory and statistics, the term Markov property refers to the memoryless property of a stochastic process, which means that its future evolution is independent of its history. It is named after the Russian mathematician Andrey Markov. The term strong Markov property is similar to the Markov property, except that the meaning of "present" is defined in terms of a random variable known as a stopping time. The term Markov assumption is used to describe a model where the Markov property is assumed to hold, such as a hidden Markov model.
Stationary distributionStationary distribution may refer to: A special distribution for a Markov chain such that if the chain starts with its stationary distribution, the marginal distribution of all states at any time will always be the stationary distribution. Assuming irreducibility, the stationary distribution is always unique if it exists, and its existence can be implied by positive recurrence of all states. The stationary distribution has the interpretation of the limiting distribution when the chain is irreducible and aperiodic.
Recurrence relationIn mathematics, a recurrence relation is an equation according to which the th term of a sequence of numbers is equal to some combination of the previous terms. Often, only previous terms of the sequence appear in the equation, for a parameter that is independent of ; this number is called the order of the relation. If the values of the first numbers in the sequence have been given, the rest of the sequence can be calculated by repeatedly applying the equation. In linear recurrences, the nth term is equated to a linear function of the previous terms.
Stationary processIn mathematics and statistics, a stationary process (or a strict/strictly stationary process or strong/strongly stationary process) is a stochastic process whose unconditional joint probability distribution does not change when shifted in time. Consequently, parameters such as mean and variance also do not change over time. If you draw a line through the middle of a stationary process then it should be flat; it may have 'seasonal' cycles around the trend line, but overall it does not trend up nor down.
Periodic pointIn mathematics, in the study of iterated functions and dynamical systems, a periodic point of a function is a point which the system returns to after a certain number of function iterations or a certain amount of time. Given a mapping f from a set X into itself, a point x in X is called periodic point if there exists an n so that where f_n is the nth iterate of f. The smallest positive integer n satisfying the above is called the prime period or least period of the point x.
Stochastic processIn probability theory and related fields, a stochastic (stəˈkæstɪk) or random process is a mathematical object usually defined as a sequence of random variables, where the index of the sequence has the interpretation of time. Stochastic processes are widely used as mathematical models of systems and phenomena that appear to vary in a random manner. Examples include the growth of a bacterial population, an electrical current fluctuating due to thermal noise, or the movement of a gas molecule.
Poincaré mapIn mathematics, particularly in dynamical systems, a first recurrence map or Poincaré map, named after Henri Poincaré, is the intersection of a periodic orbit in the state space of a continuous dynamical system with a certain lower-dimensional subspace, called the Poincaré section, transversal to the flow of the system. More precisely, one considers a periodic orbit with initial conditions within a section of the space, which leaves that section afterwards, and observes the point at which this orbit first returns to the section.
Constant-recursive sequenceIn mathematics and theoretical computer science, a constant-recursive sequence is an infinite sequence of numbers where each number in the sequence is equal to a fixed linear combination of one or more of its immediate predecessors. A constant-recursive sequence is also known as a linear recurrence sequence, linear-recursive sequence, linear-recurrent sequence, a C-finite sequence, or a solution to a linear recurrence with constant coefficients.
Linear recurrence with constant coefficientsIn mathematics (including combinatorics, linear algebra, and dynamical systems), a linear recurrence with constant coefficients (also known as a linear recurrence relation or linear difference equation) sets equal to 0 a polynomial that is linear in the various iterates of a variable—that is, in the values of the elements of a sequence. The polynomial's linearity means that each of its terms has degree 0 or 1.
StochasticStochastic (stəˈkæstɪk; ) refers to the property of being well described by a random probability distribution. Although stochasticity and randomness are distinct in that the former refers to a modeling approach and the latter refers to phenomena themselves, these two terms are often used synonymously. Furthermore, in probability theory, the formal concept of a stochastic process is also referred to as a random process.
Andrey MarkovAndrey Andreyevich Markov (14 June 1856 – 20 July 1922) was a Russian mathematician best known for his work on stochastic processes. A primary subject of his research later became known as the Markov chain. He was also a strong, close to master-level chess player. Markov and his younger brother Vladimir Andreevich Markov (1871–1897) proved the Markov brothers' inequality. His son, another Andrey Andreyevich Markov (1903–1979), was also a notable mathematician, making contributions to constructive mathematics and recursive function theory.
World War IIWorld War II or the Second World War, often abbreviated as WWII or WW2, was a global conflict lasting from 1939 to 1945. The vast majority of the world's countries, including all of the great powers, fought as part of two opposing military alliances: the Allies and the Axis. Many participants threw their economic, industrial, and scientific capabilities behind this total war, blurring the distinction between civilian and military resources.
Isle of Man TTThe Isle of Man TT or Tourist Trophy races are an annual motorcycle racing event run on the Isle of Man in May/June of most years since its inaugural race in 1907. The event is often called one of the most dangerous racing events in the world as many competitors have died. The Isle of Man TT is run in a time-trial format on public roads closed to the public by an Act of Tynwald. The event consists of one week of practice and qualifying sessions followed by one week of racing.
