Lecture

Supervised Learning in Asset Pricing

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Description

This lecture covers the application of supervised learning in asset pricing, focusing on stock return prediction. It discusses challenges such as low signal-to-noise ratio and few observations, and explains the goal of approximating conditional expected returns using linear functions. The lecture also explores the use of ridge regression with cross-validation and analyzes coefficients for past returns. It delves into the importance of model assessment, the predictive performance of the model, and the comparison of different classification methods like logistic regression and decision trees.

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Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Statistics

Data analysis: Regression analysis

Related concepts (32)

Linear regression

In statistics, linear regression is a linear approach for modelling the relationship between a scalar response and one or more explanatory variables (also known as dependent and independent variables). The case of one explanatory variable is called simple linear regression; for more than one, the process is called multiple linear regression. This term is distinct from multivariate linear regression, where multiple correlated dependent variables are predicted, rather than a single scalar variable.

Supervised learning

Supervised learning (SL) is a paradigm in machine learning where input objects (for example, a vector of predictor variables) and a desired output value (also known as human-labeled supervisory signal) train a model. The training data is processed, building a function that maps new data on expected output values. An optimal scenario will allow for the algorithm to correctly determine output values for unseen instances. This requires the learning algorithm to generalize from the training data to unseen situations in a "reasonable" way (see inductive bias).

Linear classifier

In the field of machine learning, the goal of statistical classification is to use an object's characteristics to identify which class (or group) it belongs to. A linear classifier achieves this by making a classification decision based on the value of a linear combination of the characteristics. An object's characteristics are also known as feature values and are typically presented to the machine in a vector called a feature vector.

Weak supervision

Weak supervision, also called semi-supervised learning, is a paradigm in machine learning, the relevance and notability of which increased with the advent of large language models due to large amount of data required to train them. It is characterized by using a combination of a small amount of human-labeled data (exclusively used in more expensive and time-consuming supervised learning paradigm), followed by a large amount of unlabeled data (used exclusively in unsupervised learning paradigm).

Support vector machine

In machine learning, support vector machines (SVMs, also support vector networks) are supervised learning models with associated learning algorithms that analyze data for classification and regression analysis. Developed at AT&T Bell Laboratories by Vladimir Vapnik with colleagues (Boser et al., 1992, Guyon et al., 1993, Cortes and Vapnik, 1995, Vapnik et al., 1997) SVMs are one of the most robust prediction methods, being based on statistical learning frameworks or VC theory proposed by Vapnik (1982, 1995) and Chervonenkis (1974).

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