Lecture

Bias-Variance Trade-off

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In course

CS-433: Machine learning

Machine learning methods are becoming increasingly central in many sciences and applications. In this course, fundamental principles and methods of machine learning will be introduced, analyzed and practically implemented. ...

Description

This lecture delves into the bias-variance trade-off in machine learning, exploring how model complexity impacts prediction quality. It explains how bias measures prediction accuracy, variance assesses prediction consistency, and noise sets a lower bound on error. By finding the right balance between bias and variance, a model can achieve optimal prediction performance. The instructor illustrates this concept through a detailed analysis of the bias, variance, and noise components, showing how they interact to determine the overall prediction error. The lecture concludes by emphasizing the importance of selecting a model complexity that minimizes both bias and variance to achieve accurate and consistent predictions.

Instructors (2)

Martin Jaggi

Martin Jaggi is a Tenure Track Assistant Professor at EPFL, heading the Machine Learning and Optimization Laboratory. Before that, he was a post-doctoral researcher at ETH Zurich, at the Simons Institute in Berkeley, and at École Polytechnique in Paris. He has earned his PhD in Machine Learning and Optimization from ETH Zurich in 2011, and a MSc in Mathematics also from ETH Zurich.

Nicolas Henri Bernard Flammarion

Nicolas Flammarion is a tenure-track assistant professor in computer science at EPFL. Prior to that, he was a postdoctoral fellow at UC Berkeley, hosted by Michael I. Jordan. He received his PhD in 2017 from Ecole Normale Superieure in Paris, where he was advised by Alexandre d’Aspremont and Francis Bach. In 2018 he received the prize of the Fondation Mathematique Jacques Hadamard for the best PhD thesis in the field of optimization. His research focuses primarily on learning problems at the interface of machine learning, statistics and optimization.

Official source

Related concepts (32)

Overfitting

In mathematical modeling, overfitting is "the production of an analysis that corresponds too closely or exactly to a particular set of data, and may therefore fail to fit to additional data or predict future observations reliably". An overfitted model is a mathematical model that contains more parameters than can be justified by the data. In a mathematical sense, these parameters represent the degree of a polynomial. The essence of overfitting is to have unknowingly extracted some of the residual variation (i.

Bias–variance tradeoff

In statistics and machine learning, the bias–variance tradeoff is the property of a model that the variance of the parameter estimated across samples can be reduced by increasing the bias in the estimated parameters. The bias–variance dilemma or bias–variance problem is the conflict in trying to simultaneously minimize these two sources of error that prevent supervised learning algorithms from generalizing beyond their training set: The bias error is an error from erroneous assumptions in the learning algorithm.

Machine learning

Machine learning (ML) is an umbrella term for solving problems for which development of algorithms by human programmers would be cost-prohibitive, and instead the problems are solved by helping machines 'discover' their 'own' algorithms, without needing to be explicitly told what to do by any human-developed algorithms. Recently, generative artificial neural networks have been able to surpass results of many previous approaches.

Noise

Noise is unwanted sound considered unpleasant, loud, or disruptive to hearing. From a physics standpoint, there is no distinction between noise and desired sound, as both are vibrations through a medium, such as air or water. The difference arises when the brain receives and perceives a sound. Acoustic noise is any sound in the acoustic domain, either deliberate (e.g., music or speech) or unintended. In contrast, noise in electronics may not be audible to the human ear and may require instruments for detection.

Noise (electronics)

In electronics, noise is an unwanted disturbance in an electrical signal. Noise generated by electronic devices varies greatly as it is produced by several different effects. In particular, noise is inherent in physics and central to thermodynamics. Any conductor with electrical resistance will generate thermal noise inherently. The final elimination of thermal noise in electronics can only be achieved cryogenically, and even then quantum noise would remain inherent. Electronic noise is a common component of noise in signal processing.

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