Lecture

Understanding the Yield Curve

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In course

FIN-406: Macrofinance

This course provides students with a working knowledge of macroeconomic models that explicitly incorporate financial markets. The goal is to develop a broad and analytical framework for analyzing the interaction of financial decisions, macroeconomic events ...

Description

This lecture delves into the concept of the yield curve, which is a graphical representation of US government bond yields of different maturities. It explains how the shape of the yield curve can indicate future economic conditions, such as inflation and interest rates. By analyzing the relationship between short- and long-term Treasury yields, investors can gain insights into the current and future state of the economy. The lecture also explores the implications of an inverted yield curve and its historical significance as a potential indicator of an upcoming recession.

Instructors (3)

Luisa Lambertini

Luisa Lambertini is Full Professor at the Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL), where she holds the Chair of International Finance. She received her Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley in 1995, her Master of Science in Economics from Warwick University in 1989 and a Laurea cum Laude from the Universita' degli Studi di Bologna in 1987. Prior to coming to EPFL, Professor Lambertini was Associate Professor at Claremont McKenna College 2005-06, Associate Professor at Boston College 2003-06 and Assistant Professor at the University of California at Los Angeles 1995-03. Professor Lambertini's research is in international finance, open-economy macroeconomics and political economy. She studies how monetary and fiscal policies affect the economy, how they interact and how they can be used to achieve good economic outcomes and improve social welfare. Professor Lambertini's research focuses on how monetary and fiscal institutions should be designed to successfully mitigate the impact of unexpected shocks while pursuing long-run goals consistent with price stability and fiscal sustainability. These issues are even more important for small open economies in an interdependent world and for countries that adopt a common currency. Professor Lambertini has published articles in the American Economic Review, the Review of Economic Studies, the European Economic Review, the Journal of International Economics and the Economic Journal, among others. She was a Consultant in the Fiscal Policies Division of the European Central Bank and she has organized several international conferences. More details on my CV

Christian Pröbsting

Stylianos Tsiaras

I am a scientific collaborator at the Luisa Lambertini's Chair of International Finance at the Swiss Finance Inst i tute. Previously I was a Max Weber Fellow at the European University Institute. I got my PhD in economics at the University of Surrey. My thesis was supervised by Professor Martin Kaae Jensen and Dr. Tom Holden. My recent research explores the set of unconventional monetary policies by the European Central Bank and their impact on the macroeconomy, welfare and inequality.

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Business

Finance: Financial risk management, Corporate finance

Economics

Macroeconomics: Keynesian economics

Related concepts (32)

Inflation

In economics, inflation is an increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index.

Government bond

A government bond or sovereign bond is a form of bond issued by a government to support public spending. It generally includes a commitment to pay periodic interest, called coupon payments, and to repay the face value on the maturity date. For example, a bondholder invests

20,000, called face value or principal, into a 10-year government bond with a 10% annual coupon; the government would pay the bondholder 10% interest (

2000 in this case) each year and repay the $20,000 original face value at the date of maturity (i.

Interest rate

An interest rate is the amount of interest due per period, as a proportion of the amount lent, deposited, or borrowed (called the principal sum). The total interest on an amount lent or borrowed depends on the principal sum, the interest rate, the compounding frequency, and the length of time over which it is lent, deposited, or borrowed. The annual interest rate is the rate over a period of one year. Other interest rates apply over different periods, such as a month or a day, but they are usually annualized.

Inflation targeting

In macroeconomics, inflation targeting is a monetary policy where a central bank follows an explicit target for the inflation rate for the medium-term and announces this inflation target to the public. The assumption is that the best that monetary policy can do to support long-term growth of the economy is to maintain price stability, and price stability is achieved by controlling inflation. The central bank uses interest rates as its main short-term monetary instrument.

Yield curve

In finance, the yield curve is a graph which depicts how the yields on debt instruments – such as bonds – vary as a function of their years remaining to maturity. Typically, the graph's horizontal or x-axis is a time line of months or years remaining to maturity, with the shortest maturity on the left and progressively longer time periods on the right. The vertical or y-axis depicts the annualized yield to maturity. Those who issue and trade in forms of debt, such as loans and bonds, use yield curves to determine their value.

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