Lecture

Extreme Value Theory: Limiting Distributions and Applications

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In course

FIN-417: Quantitative financial risk management

This course is an introduction to quantitative risk management that covers standard statistical methods, multivariate models, risk measures, non-linear dependence structures (copula models), as well as credit risk. ...

Description

This lecture covers Extreme Value Theory, focusing on the limiting distribution of normalized maxima, GEV distribution, block-maxima method, GPD, and threshold exceedances. It explains the concepts of maxima, limiting distributions of sums, and the Fisher-Tippett-Gnedenko Theorem. The lecture also delves into Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) Distributions, GEV distribution functions, and GEV density functions. Additionally, it discusses the Fréchet and Gumbel cases, the Pickands-Balkema-de Haan Theorem, and the modelling of excess losses using the GPD. The lecture concludes with topics like the sample mean excess plot, threshold selection trade-off, and estimated tail distribution.

Instructors (2)

Semyon Malamud

Teaching & PhD PhD Students Johannes Schwab, Onur Demiray, Giuseppe Matera Past EPFL PhD Students Rémy Praz, Evgeny Petrov, Yuan Zhang, Julien Arsène Blatt, Erik Hapnes, Teng Andrea Xu, Boris Kuznetsov Courses Big Data and Machine Learning for Financial Economics FIN-622 This class is an introduction to Machine Learning and High Dimensional Statistics in Finance. We start with purely empirical approach, focusing first on high dimensional regressions then moving to kernel methods and deep l

Damir Filipovic

Damir Filipovic holds the Swissquote Chair in Quantitative Finance and is Swiss Finance Institute Professor at the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland. Prior to this, he was head of the Vienna Institute of Finance and professor at the University of Vienna. He previously held the chair of financial and insurance mathematics at the University of Munich, and he was on the faculty of Princeton University. He received his Ph.D. in mathematics from ETH Zurich in 2000. Damir Filipovic worked as a scientific consultant for the Swiss Federal Office of Private Insurance from 2003 to 2004. There he co-developed the Swiss Solvency Test, which defines the regulatory capital requirement for all Swiss based insurance companies and groups. He is on the editorial board of several academic journals. His research interests include the term structure of interest rates, credit and volatility risk, quantitative methods in risk management, and stochastic processes. His papers have been published in a variety of academic journals including the Journal of Financial Economics, Mathematical Finance, Finance and Stochastics, and the Annals of Applied Probability. He is the author of a textbook titled Term-Structure Models.

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Statistics

Statistical inference: Mathematical statistics

Related concepts (31)

Heavy-tailed distribution

In probability theory, heavy-tailed distributions are probability distributions whose tails are not exponentially bounded: that is, they have heavier tails than the exponential distribution. In many applications it is the right tail of the distribution that is of interest, but a distribution may have a heavy left tail, or both tails may be heavy. There are three important subclasses of heavy-tailed distributions: the fat-tailed distributions, the long-tailed distributions, and the subexponential distributions.

Weibull distribution

In probability theory and statistics, the Weibull distribution ˈwaɪbʊl is a continuous probability distribution. It models a broad range of random variables, largely in the nature of a time to failure or time between events. Examples are maximum one-day rainfalls and the time a user spends on a web page. The distribution is named after Swedish mathematician Waloddi Weibull, who described it in detail in 1939, although it was first identified by Maurice René Fréchet and first applied by to describe a particle size distribution.

Kurtosis

In probability theory and statistics, kurtosis (from κυρτός, kyrtos or kurtos, meaning "curved, arching") is a measure of the "tailedness" of the probability distribution of a real-valued random variable. Like skewness, kurtosis describes a particular aspect of a probability distribution. There are different ways to quantify kurtosis for a theoretical distribution, and there are corresponding ways of estimating it using a sample from a population. Different measures of kurtosis may have different interpretations.

Exponential distribution

In probability theory and statistics, the exponential distribution or negative exponential distribution is the probability distribution of the time between events in a Poisson point process, i.e., a process in which events occur continuously and independently at a constant average rate. It is a particular case of the gamma distribution. It is the continuous analogue of the geometric distribution, and it has the key property of being memoryless. In addition to being used for the analysis of Poisson point processes it is found in various other contexts.

Beta distribution

In probability theory and statistics, the beta distribution is a family of continuous probability distributions defined on the interval [0, 1] or (0, 1) in terms of two positive parameters, denoted by alpha (α) and beta (β), that appear as exponents of the variable and its complement to 1, respectively, and control the shape of the distribution. The beta distribution has been applied to model the behavior of random variables limited to intervals of finite length in a wide variety of disciplines.

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