Lecture

Currency and Commodity Investments

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In course

FIN-405: Investments

The course covers a wide range of topics in investment analysis ...

Description

This lecture covers topics related to currency and commodity investments, including forward contracts, commodity indexes, and portfolio strategies. It discusses the implications of monetary policy on bond-stock beta sign, value and momentum in global bonds, and the relationship between stock-bond correlation and economic conditions. The instructor explains the concept of uncovered interest parity, historical excess returns in commodity markets, and the use of currency carry trades as a hedge against inflation risk.

Instructor

Pierre Collin-Dufresne

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Business

Finance: Financial risk management

Economics

Microeconomics: Financial economics

Related concepts (32)

Carry (investment)

The carry of an asset is the return obtained from holding it (if positive), or the cost of holding it (if negative) (see also Cost of carry). For instance, commodities are usually negative carry assets, as they incur storage costs or may suffer from depreciation. (Imagine corn or wheat sitting in a silo somewhere, not being sold or eaten.) But in some circumstances, appropriately hedged commodities can be positive carry assets if the forward/futures market is willing to pay sufficient premium for future delivery.

Interest rate parity

Interest rate parity is a no-arbitrage condition representing an equilibrium state under which investors interest rates available on bank deposits in two countries. The fact that this condition does not always hold allows for potential opportunities to earn riskless profits from covered interest arbitrage. Two assumptions central to interest rate parity are capital mobility and perfect substitutability of domestic and foreign assets.

Covered interest arbitrage

Covered interest arbitrage is an arbitrage trading strategy whereby an investor capitalizes on the interest rate differential between two countries by using a forward contract to cover (eliminate exposure to) exchange rate risk. Using forward contracts enables arbitrageurs such as individual investors or banks to make use of the forward premium (or discount) to earn a riskless profit from discrepancies between two countries' interest rates. The opportunity to earn riskless profits arises from the reality that the interest rate parity condition does not constantly hold.

Portfolio optimization

Portfolio optimization is the process of selecting the best portfolio (asset distribution), out of the set of all portfolios being considered, according to some objective. The objective typically maximizes factors such as expected return, and minimizes costs like financial risk. Factors being considered may range from tangible (such as assets, liabilities, earnings or other fundamentals) to intangible (such as selective divestment). Modern portfolio theory was introduced in a 1952 doctoral thesis by Harry Markowitz; see Markowitz model.

Currency

A currency is a standardization of money in any form, in use or circulation as a medium of exchange, for example banknotes and coins. A more general definition is that a currency is a system of money in common use within a specific environment over time, especially for people in a nation state. Under this definition, the British Pound Sterling (£), euros (€), Japanese yen (¥), and U.S. dollars (US$) are examples of (government-issued) fiat currencies.

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