Lecture

Explosions in Markov Chains

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In course

MATH-332: Markov chains

The course follows the text of Norris and the polycopie (which will be distributed chapter by chapter). ...

Description

This lecture delves into the concept of explosions in Markov chains, discussing conditions for explosions and the behavior of chains with different parameters. The instructor explains the relationship between jump chains, holding times, and the probability of hitting specific states. The lecture covers necessary and sufficient conditions for a continuous-time Markov chain to be explosive, highlighting the impact of parameters like lambda and mu. Through detailed examples and theoretical explanations, the instructor demonstrates how the sum of certain parameters influences the explosiveness of the chain.

Instructor

Thomas Mountford

Teaching & PhD Past EPFL PhD Students Damien Gauthier, Samir Brahim Belhaouari, Driss Baraka, Daniel Rodrigues Valesin, Samuel Schöpfer, Kamran Kalbasi, Jacques Saliba, Hao Xue, Keming Chen Past EPFL PhD Students as codirector Guillaume Charles Woessner Courses Analysis I MATH-101(d) Study the fundamental concepts of analysis, and the differential and integral calculus of real-valued functions of one real variable. Markov chains MATH-332 The course follows the text of Norris

Official source

Related concepts (16)

Markov chain

A Markov chain or Markov process is a stochastic model describing a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event. Informally, this may be thought of as, "What happens next depends only on the state of affairs now." A countably infinite sequence, in which the chain moves state at discrete time steps, gives a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC). A continuous-time process is called a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC).

Probability

Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking, 0 indicates impossibility of the event and 1 indicates certainty. The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that the event will occur. A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin.

Probability theory

Probability theory or probability calculus is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expressing it through a set of axioms. Typically these axioms formalise probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure taking values between 0 and 1, termed the probability measure, to a set of outcomes called the sample space.

Probability distribution

In probability theory and statistics, a probability distribution is the mathematical function that gives the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes for an experiment. It is a mathematical description of a random phenomenon in terms of its sample space and the probabilities of events (subsets of the sample space). For instance, if X is used to denote the outcome of a coin toss ("the experiment"), then the probability distribution of X would take the value 0.5 (1 in 2 or 1/2) for X = heads, and 0.

Probability axioms

The Kolmogorov axioms are the foundations of probability theory introduced by Russian mathematician Andrey Kolmogorov in 1933. These axioms remain central and have direct contributions to mathematics, the physical sciences, and real-world probability cases. An alternative approach to formalising probability, favoured by some Bayesians, is given by Cox's theorem. The assumptions as to setting up the axioms can be summarised as follows: Let be a measure space with being the probability of some event , and .

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