Lecture

Electricity Demand Forecasting

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In course

CIVIL-442: Integrated planning of energy infrastructures

L'ajustement entre la demande et l'offre d'énergie nécessite de réaliser d'importants investissements dans les infrastructures. Ce cours donne les éléments de base de la planification à long terme dans le cas de l'ajustement entre la demande et l'offre d'é ...

Description

This lecture covers the prediction of electricity demand evolution, integrated energy infrastructure planning, and least cost planning. It explains methods such as trend forecasting, econometric models, and techno-economic models to estimate electricity consumption.

Instructor

Edgard Gnansounou

1983 Ing. Civil EPFL
1991 Dr ès Sciences techniques, EPFL
Directeur du Laboratoire de systèmes énergétiques (LASEN) de 2003 à 2008
Dès 2008, Responsable du groupe de Recherche en Bioénergie et Planification énergétique
Co-fondateur du bureau d'étude ENERS Energy Concept
Président de la Fondation SUD (Solidarités Universitaires pour le Développement)

Je suis membre de différentes associations professionnelles parmi lesquelles figuent le Conseil Mondial de l'énergie (CME) et l'Association internationale pour l'économie de l'énergie (AIEE). Comme membre du groupe d'étude du CME sur les vulnérabilités, j'ai développé les métriques utilisées pour évaluer la vulnérabilité énergétique des pays industrialisés. Depuis janvier 2008 : membre du Comité d'édition du journal international Bioresource Technology. Depuis 2009: membre du Comité de la "European Biofuels Technology Platform"

Official source

Related concepts (32)

Forecasting

Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and resolution itself.

Economic forecasting

Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit—or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms. Economic forecasting is a measure to find out the future prosperity of a pattern of investment and is the key activity in economic analysis.

Energy demand management

Energy demand management, also known as demand-side management (DSM) or demand-side response (DSR), is the modification of consumer demand for energy through various methods such as financial incentives and behavioral change through education. Usually, the goal of demand-side management is to encourage the consumer to use less energy during peak hours, or to move the time of energy use to off-peak times such as nighttime and weekends.

Demand response

Demand response is a change in the power consumption of an electric utility customer to better match the demand for power with the supply. Until the 21st century decrease in the cost of pumped storage and batteries electric energy could not be easily stored, so utilities have traditionally matched demand and supply by throttling the production rate of their power plants, taking generating units on or off line, or importing power from other utilities.

Peak demand

Peak demand on an electrical grid is simply the highest electrical power demand that has occurred over a specified time period (Gönen 2008). Peak demand is typically characterized as annual, daily or seasonal and has the unit of power. Peak demand, peak load or on-peak are terms used in energy demand management describing a period in which electrical power is expected to be provided for a sustained period at a significantly higher than average supply level. Peak demand fluctuations may occur on daily, monthly, seasonal and yearly cycles.

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