Lecture

Model Selection in Time Series Analysis

Graph Chat

Chat with Graph Search

Ask any question about EPFL courses, lectures, exercises, research, news, etc. or try the example questions below.

DISCLAIMER: The Graph Chatbot is not programmed to provide explicit or categorical answers to your questions. Rather, it transforms your questions into API requests that are distributed across the various IT services officially administered by EPFL. Its purpose is solely to collect and recommend relevant references to content that you can explore to help you answer your questions.

In course

FIN-403: Econometrics

The course covers basic econometric models and methods that are routinely applied to obtain inference results in economic and financial applications. ...

Description

This lecture covers the process of model selection in time series analysis, focusing on deciding the number of AR and MA terms based on autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions. It explains how to estimate candidate models, compare them using information criteria, and run diagnostic checks. The lecture also discusses the challenges of finding the right model order solely based on ACF and PACF. Additionally, it explores diagnostics for assessing the adequacy of ARMA candidate models and the importance of information criteria in comparing multiple models. Practical illustrations and examples are provided, including forecasting with ARMA models and evaluating forecast accuracy. The lecture concludes with a discussion on the limitations of ARIMA modeling and extensions like SARIMA, ARFIMA, and ARCH models.

This video is available exclusively on Mediaspace for a restricted audience. Please log in to MediaSpace to access it if you have the necessary permissions.

Watch on Mediaspace

Instructor

Andreas Fuster

Andreas Fuster is an Associate Professor of Finance at Swiss Finance Institute @ EPFL and a Research Fellow at the CEPR. Previously, he worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Swiss National Bank. Andreas's main research interests are in empirical finance, macroeconomics, and behavioral economics. His recent work has focused in particular on the effects of technological advances on household credit markets. Andreas’s research has been published in academic journals such as the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the Review of Economic Studies, the Journal of Finance, and the Review of Financial Studies. Andreas obtained his Ph.D. from Harvard University and also holds an M.Phil. from Oxford University and a B.A. from the University of Lausanne (Switzerland), all in economics.

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Statistics

Data analysis: Time series

Related concepts (32)

Forecasting

Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and resolution itself.

Autoregressive–moving-average model

In the statistical analysis of time series, autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) models provide a parsimonious description of a (weakly) stationary stochastic process in terms of two polynomials, one for the autoregression (AR) and the second for the moving average (MA). The general ARMA model was described in the 1951 thesis of Peter Whittle, Hypothesis testing in time series analysis, and it was popularized in the 1970 book by George E. P. Box and Gwilym Jenkins.

Autoregressive integrated moving average

In statistics and econometrics, and in particular in time series analysis, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is a generalization of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. To better comprehend the data or to forecast upcoming series points, both of these models are fitted to time series data. ARIMA models are applied in some cases where data show evidence of non-stationarity in the sense of mean (but not variance/autocovariance), where an initial differencing step (corresponding to the "integrated" part of the model) can be applied one or more times to eliminate the non-stationarity of the mean function (i.

Autocorrelation

Autocorrelation, sometimes known as serial correlation in the discrete time case, is the correlation of a signal with a delayed copy of itself as a function of delay. Informally, it is the similarity between observations of a random variable as a function of the time lag between them. The analysis of autocorrelation is a mathematical tool for finding repeating patterns, such as the presence of a periodic signal obscured by noise, or identifying the missing fundamental frequency in a signal implied by its harmonic frequencies.

Moving-average model

In time series analysis, the moving-average model (MA model), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable. Together with the autoregressive (AR) model, the moving-average model is a special case and key component of the more general ARMA and ARIMA models of time series, which have a more complicated stochastic structure.

Related lectures (64)

Forecasting & Long Memory: Time Series

Explores forecasting methods and long memory in time series analysis.

Model Choice and Prediction

Explores model choice, prediction, and forecasting techniques in time series analysis.

Residuals & Forecasting: MATH-342 Time Series

Covers residuals, diagnostics, overfitting, and forecasting methods in time series analysis.

Time Series

Explores Time Series, covering model specification, diagnostics, and forecasting methods.

Demand Forecasting: Methods and Models