Lecture

Time Series Analysis: ARIMA and Seasonal Models

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In course

MATH-342: Time series

A first course in statistical time series analysis and applications. ...

Description

This lecture covers the ARIMA(1,1,0) model for determining second-order properties of a process, the ARI(1,1) process, and seasonal models for econometric and financial processes. It explains the Box-Jenkins methodology for model building and identification using time series plots, ACF, and PACF.

Instructor

Sofia Charlotta Olhede

I am a professor of Statistics at EPFL. I did my PhD in Mathematics at Imperial College London, and graduated in 2003. I was an assistant professor (lecturer) at Imperial College London 2002-2006, and an associate professor (senior lecturer) 2006-2007. In 2007 I moved to University College London and became a full professor. I moved to EPFL in 2019, and in 2018 I became an Institute of Mathematical Statistics Fellow with citation “For seminal contributions to the theory and application of large and heteroge

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Statistics

Data analysis: Time series

Related concepts (15)

Autocorrelation

Autocorrelation, sometimes known as serial correlation in the discrete time case, is the correlation of a signal with a delayed copy of itself as a function of delay. Informally, it is the similarity between observations of a random variable as a function of the time lag between them. The analysis of autocorrelation is a mathematical tool for finding repeating patterns, such as the presence of a periodic signal obscured by noise, or identifying the missing fundamental frequency in a signal implied by its harmonic frequencies.

Autoregressive integrated moving average

In statistics and econometrics, and in particular in time series analysis, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is a generalization of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. To better comprehend the data or to forecast upcoming series points, both of these models are fitted to time series data. ARIMA models are applied in some cases where data show evidence of non-stationarity in the sense of mean (but not variance/autocovariance), where an initial differencing step (corresponding to the "integrated" part of the model) can be applied one or more times to eliminate the non-stationarity of the mean function (i.

Seasonal adjustment

Seasonal adjustment or deseasonalization is a statistical method for removing the seasonal component of a time series. It is usually done when wanting to analyse the trend, and cyclical deviations from trend, of a time series independently of the seasonal components. Many economic phenomena have seasonal cycles, such as agricultural production, (crop yields fluctuate with the seasons) and consumer consumption (increased personal spending leading up to Christmas).

Autoregressive–moving-average model

In the statistical analysis of time series, autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) models provide a parsimonious description of a (weakly) stationary stochastic process in terms of two polynomials, one for the autoregression (AR) and the second for the moving average (MA). The general ARMA model was described in the 1951 thesis of Peter Whittle, Hypothesis testing in time series analysis, and it was popularized in the 1970 book by George E. P. Box and Gwilym Jenkins.

Time series

In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A time series is very frequently plotted via a run chart (which is a temporal line chart).

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