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Lecture

Monte-Carlo Integration: Approximation and Variance

Description

This lecture covers Monte-Carlo integration, focusing on the approximation of expectations and variances using random sampling. It explains how to estimate the variance of a function and the desired precision through the number of draws. The instructor also discusses the error components in conditional choice models and the parameters estimation using maximum simulated likelihood.

In MOOC

Selected Topics on Discrete Choice

Official source

Related concepts (23)

Monte Carlo method

Monte Carlo methods, or Monte Carlo experiments, are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results. The underlying concept is to use randomness to solve problems that might be deterministic in principle. They are often used in physical and mathematical problems and are most useful when it is difficult or impossible to use other approaches. Monte Carlo methods are mainly used in three problem classes: optimization, numerical integration, and generating draws from a probability distribution.

Markov chain Monte Carlo

In statistics, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprise a class of algorithms for sampling from a probability distribution. By constructing a Markov chain that has the desired distribution as its equilibrium distribution, one can obtain a sample of the desired distribution by recording states from the chain. The more steps that are included, the more closely the distribution of the sample matches the actual desired distribution. Various algorithms exist for constructing chains, including the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm.

Variance

In probability theory and statistics, variance is the squared deviation from the mean of a random variable. The variance is also often defined as the square of the standard deviation. Variance is a measure of dispersion, meaning it is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out from their average value. It is the second central moment of a distribution, and the covariance of the random variable with itself, and it is often represented by , , , , or .

Simple random sample

In statistics, a simple random sample (or SRS) is a subset of individuals (a sample) chosen from a larger set (a population) in which a subset of individuals are chosen randomly, all with the same probability. It is a process of selecting a sample in a random way. In SRS, each subset of k individuals has the same probability of being chosen for the sample as any other subset of k individuals. A simple random sample is an unbiased sampling technique. Simple random sampling is a basic type of sampling and can be a component of other more complex sampling methods.

Stratified sampling

In statistics, stratified sampling is a method of sampling from a population which can be partitioned into subpopulations. In statistical surveys, when subpopulations within an overall population vary, it could be advantageous to sample each subpopulation (stratum) independently. Stratification is the process of dividing members of the population into homogeneous subgroups before sampling. The strata should define a partition of the population.

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