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Lecture

Stochastic Simulation: LHS Estimator and Variances Analysis

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MATH-414: Stochastic simulation

The student who follows this course will get acquainted with computational tools used to analyze systems with uncertainty arising in engineering, physics, chemistry, and economics. Focus will be on sampling methods as Monte Carlo, quasi Monte Carlo, Mark ...

Description

This lecture covers the analysis of the LHS estimator and variances in stochastic simulation, focusing on the random shift within the Sox, properties of Alus, and practical ways to estimate errors using independent LHS designs.

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Instructor

Fabio Nobile

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Related concepts (29)

Maximum likelihood estimation

In statistics, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a method of estimating the parameters of an assumed probability distribution, given some observed data. This is achieved by maximizing a likelihood function so that, under the assumed statistical model, the observed data is most probable. The point in the parameter space that maximizes the likelihood function is called the maximum likelihood estimate. The logic of maximum likelihood is both intuitive and flexible, and as such the method has become a dominant means of statistical inference.

Error analysis (mathematics)

In mathematics, error analysis is the study of kind and quantity of error, or uncertainty, that may be present in the solution to a problem. This issue is particularly prominent in applied areas such as numerical analysis and statistics. In numerical simulation or modeling of real systems, error analysis is concerned with the changes in the output of the model as the parameters to the model vary about a mean. For instance, in a system modeled as a function of two variables Error analysis deals with the propagation of the numerical errors in and (around mean values and ) to error in (around a mean ).

Factor analysis

Factor analysis is a statistical method used to describe variability among observed, correlated variables in terms of a potentially lower number of unobserved variables called factors. For example, it is possible that variations in six observed variables mainly reflect the variations in two unobserved (underlying) variables. Factor analysis searches for such joint variations in response to unobserved latent variables.

Errors and residuals

In statistics and optimization, errors and residuals are two closely related and easily confused measures of the deviation of an observed value of an element of a statistical sample from its "true value" (not necessarily observable). The error of an observation is the deviation of the observed value from the true value of a quantity of interest (for example, a population mean). The residual is the difference between the observed value and the estimated value of the quantity of interest (for example, a sample mean).

Unbiased estimation of standard deviation

In statistics and in particular statistical theory, unbiased estimation of a standard deviation is the calculation from a statistical sample of an estimated value of the standard deviation (a measure of statistical dispersion) of a population of values, in such a way that the expected value of the calculation equals the true value. Except in some important situations, outlined later, the task has little relevance to applications of statistics since its need is avoided by standard procedures, such as the use of significance tests and confidence intervals, or by using Bayesian analysis.

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