Lecture

Risk Analysis and Management: Basics I

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In course

CIVIL-438: Risk analysis and management

Le cours vise à former les étudiants aux méthodes et outils permettant d'appréhender de manière fondée et scientifique la question de l'analyse et de la gestion des risques technologiques et naturels, avec une attention portée au domaine du Génie civil. ...

Description

This lecture covers the fundamentals of risk analysis and management in civil engineering, focusing on uncertainties, deterministic and probabilistic approaches, Monte Carlo methods, and direct integration. It also discusses the link between data input and output results, model creation, stability analysis, transport modeling, and probability calculations. The instructor emphasizes the importance of input parameters, deterministic vs. probabilistic approaches, and methods for handling random variables.

Instructor

Laurent Vulliet

EDUCATION 2016 Board Member Certificate, Swiss Board School, Switzerland 2008 AMP (Advanced Management Program), INSEAD, Fontainebleau, France 1986 PhD (Dr sc. tech.), EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland 1980 Ms, Civil Engineering (Dipl. Bauing. ETH), ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES 1994 - Present Professor, EPFL. Director of the Soil Mechanics Laboratory (1994-2008). Promoted from Associate to Full Professor in 1996. Part-time position since 2008 2008 - 2015 CEO, BG Consulting Engineers, Lausanne, Switzerland. 2001 - 2008 Dean, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering (ENAC), Ecole polytechnique fédérale, Lausanne (EPFL) 1999 - 2001 Head, Civil Engineering Department, EPFL 1989 - 1993 Senior Engineer, De Cérenville Géotechnique SA, Ecublens, Switzerland 1987 - 1989 Lecturer, Department of Civil Engineering and Engineering Mechanics, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA 1986 Invited Researcher, Laboratoire central des ponts et chaussées (LCPC), Paris, France 1981 - 1986 Research assistant, and PhD student, Soil Mechanics Laboratory (LMS), EPFL. Thesis on the modeling of natural creeping slopes. Co-advisors Prof. E. Recordon (EPFL) and Prof. K. Hutter (TU Darmstadt) BOARDS / COUNCILS

Member of the Board of Directors, Implenia, Dietlikon, Switzerland (2016 - present)
Member of the Board of Directors, BG Consulting Engineers, Lausanne (2006 - 2015)
Vice-President, Swiss Society of Engineers and Architects (SIA). 2009-2013.
Member, Foundation Council, Foundation Les Bois Chamblard, financing research in Environmental Sciences at EPFL (focusing on bio-diversity). 2003-present
Member, Foundation Council of the Presses Polytechniques et Universitaires Romandes (PPUR), Lausanne. 1995-present
Member, Stiftungsrat der Präventionsstiftung der KGV (a Swiss foundation for the financing of applied research in the domain of natural risks from Cantonal Building Insurances). 2003-2008
Member of the Board of Directors, Stump Bohr AG, Nänikon. 1998 2001

PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES

Swiss Society of Engineers and Architects (SIA)
American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
International Association for Computer Meth. and Advances in Geomechanics (IACMAG)
International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (ISSMGE)
International Society for Rock Mechanics (ISRM)
Swiss Society for Soil and Rock Mechanics (SSMSR)
Swiss Society for Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics (SGEB)

SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEES

Swiss National Science Foundation (NSF): member of the Foundation Council and of the Electoral Commission (1996-2003)
Extra-Parliamentary National Commission on Natural Disasters (PLANAT): member of the Commission 1997-2007 (member of the Executive Board from 1997 to 2000)
Natural Hazards Competence Centre CENAT (ETH Domain): founder member and member of the Board of Directors (1995-2007)
Alliance of European Research Laboratories (ALERT), member of the Board of Directors (1995-2009)
Beratende Kommission Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL): member (2000-2004)
Centro Stefano Franscini (CSF, Monte Verità): member of the Scientific Advisory Committee (1997-2007)
EPFL Press and Information Commission (CPI). Member 1994-94, President 1995-2000

EDITORIAL BOARDS

Adjunct Editor-in-Chief, Revue française de génie civil (Hermès); founder member (1996-Present). Cette revue est devenue "European Journal of Environmental and Civil Engineering"
Editorial Advisory Board, Int. J. Num. Analyt. Meth. in Geomech., John Wiley (1997-2009).
Editorial Board, Int. J. of Geomechanics (2000-2009).
Editorial Board, Computer & Geotechnics, Elsevier (2001-2009).
Editorial Board, Rivista Italiana di Geotecnica (1997-2009).

Official source

Related concepts (21)

Risk management

Risk management is the identification, evaluation, and prioritization of risks (defined in ISO 31000 as the effect of uncertainty on objectives) followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities.

Risk

In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environment), often focusing on negative, undesirable consequences. Many different definitions have been proposed. The international standard definition of risk for common understanding in different applications is "effect of uncertainty on objectives".

Measurement uncertainty

In metrology, measurement uncertainty is the expression of the statistical dispersion of the values attributed to a measured quantity. All measurements are subject to uncertainty and a measurement result is complete only when it is accompanied by a statement of the associated uncertainty, such as the standard deviation. By international agreement, this uncertainty has a probabilistic basis and reflects incomplete knowledge of the quantity value. It is a non-negative parameter.

Propagation of uncertainty

In statistics, propagation of uncertainty (or propagation of error) is the effect of variables' uncertainties (or errors, more specifically random errors) on the uncertainty of a function based on them. When the variables are the values of experimental measurements they have uncertainties due to measurement limitations (e.g., instrument precision) which propagate due to the combination of variables in the function. The uncertainty u can be expressed in a number of ways. It may be defined by the absolute error Δx.

Risk assessment

Risk assessment determines possible mishaps, their likelihood and consequences, and the tolerances for such events. The results of this process may be expressed in a quantitative or qualitative fashion. Risk assessment is an inherent part of a broader risk management strategy to help reduce any potential risk-related consequences. More precisely, risk assessment identifies and analyses potential (future) events that may negatively impact individuals, assets, and/or the environment (i.e. hazard analysis).

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