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Lecture

Supervised Learning in Financial Econometrics

In course

FIN-407: Machine learning in finance

This course aims to give an introduction to the application of machine learning to finance, focusing on the problems of portfolio optimization, return prediction, and textual analysis. A particular focus will be on deep learning and the practical details o ...

Description

This lecture covers supervised learning in financial econometrics, focusing on linear regression and model fitting. Topics include the assumptions of linear models, model training, residuals, and potential problems like non-linearity, correlation of error terms, and heteroskedasticity. It also discusses basis functions, the bias-variance trade-off, subset selection methods, cross-validation, regularization techniques like ridge regression and Lasso, and the concept of the random forest algorithm.

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Instructor

Semyon Malamud

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Statistics

Data analysis: Regression analysis, Cross-validation

Related concepts (32)

Linear regression

In statistics, linear regression is a linear approach for modelling the relationship between a scalar response and one or more explanatory variables (also known as dependent and independent variables). The case of one explanatory variable is called simple linear regression; for more than one, the process is called multiple linear regression. This term is distinct from multivariate linear regression, where multiple correlated dependent variables are predicted, rather than a single scalar variable.

Supervised learning

Supervised learning (SL) is a paradigm in machine learning where input objects (for example, a vector of predictor variables) and a desired output value (also known as human-labeled supervisory signal) train a model. The training data is processed, building a function that maps new data on expected output values. An optimal scenario will allow for the algorithm to correctly determine output values for unseen instances. This requires the learning algorithm to generalize from the training data to unseen situations in a "reasonable" way (see inductive bias).

Machine learning

Machine learning (ML) is an umbrella term for solving problems for which development of algorithms by human programmers would be cost-prohibitive, and instead the problems are solved by helping machines 'discover' their 'own' algorithms, without needing to be explicitly told what to do by any human-developed algorithms. Recently, generative artificial neural networks have been able to surpass results of many previous approaches.

Bayesian linear regression

Bayesian linear regression is a type of conditional modeling in which the mean of one variable is described by a linear combination of other variables, with the goal of obtaining the posterior probability of the regression coefficients (as well as other parameters describing the distribution of the regressand) and ultimately allowing the out-of-sample prediction of the regressand (often labelled ) conditional on observed values of the regressors (usually ).

Lasso (statistics)

In statistics and machine learning, lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator; also Lasso or LASSO) is a regression analysis method that performs both variable selection and regularization in order to enhance the prediction accuracy and interpretability of the resulting statistical model. It was originally introduced in geophysics, and later by Robert Tibshirani, who coined the term. Lasso was originally formulated for linear regression models. This simple case reveals a substantial amount about the estimator.

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