Lecture

Valuation under Uncertainty

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In course

MGT-301: Foundations in financial economics

The aim of this course is to expose EPFL bachelor students to some of the main areas in financial economics. The course will be organized around six themes. Students will obtain both practical insights through real-world examples and understand how one can ...

Description

This lecture introduces the concept of risk in investment decisions, where future cash flows are uncertain and associated with different states of nature. It explores the valuation of uncertain cash flows, the rate of return, portfolio returns, and the distribution of portfolio returns. The lecture also covers the estimation of moments from time-series data, historical performance of asset classes, mean-variance utility, optimal mean-variance portfolio choice, and the mean-variance efficient frontier in the two-asset case.

Instructors (3)

Rüdiger Fahlenbrach

RUEDIGER FAHLENBRACH is Full Professor at Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland. Formerly on the faculty of the Fisher College of Business of the Ohio State University (USA), he holds a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Pennsylvania (Wharton). He holds a senior research chair from the Swiss Finance Institute, and is research member at the European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI). He has research interests in empirical corporate finance, in particular corporate governance and entrepreneurship. Ruediger Fahlenbrach has published in the leading academic journals in finance, including the Journal of Finance, the Journal of Financial Economics, the Review of Financial Studies and the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. Ruediger currently serves a three year term as elected director of the European Finance Association (2018-2020). He is Associate Editor of the Review of Finance, and former associate editor of the Review of Financial Studies and Financial Management. His research has been reported in many large-circulation newspapers such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, Le Temps, NZZ, Handelsblatt, Forbes Magazine, USA Today, and Fortune Magazine.

Julien Hugonnier

Expertise Asset pricing theory, incomplete markets and financial frictions, general equilibrium theory, decision making under uncertainty Teaching & PhD PhD Students Luca Pagliuca, Darius Nik Nejad Past EPFL PhD Students Rodolfo Javier Prieto Katunaric, Michael Hasler, Giuliano Antonio Curatola, Julien Cujean, Thomas Antonius Geelen, Nicolas Gauderon, Benoit Vincent Sylvain Cornet Past EPFL PhD Students as codirector Rémy Praz, Cagil Kocyigit, Alexis Marchal Courses Derivatives FIN-404 Thi

Pierre Collin-Dufresne

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Business

Finance: Corporate finance

Statistics

Statistical inference: Mathematical statistics

Economics

Microeconomics: Financial economics

Related concepts (31)

Portfolio optimization

Portfolio optimization is the process of selecting the best portfolio (asset distribution), out of the set of all portfolios being considered, according to some objective. The objective typically maximizes factors such as expected return, and minimizes costs like financial risk. Factors being considered may range from tangible (such as assets, liabilities, earnings or other fundamentals) to intangible (such as selective divestment). Modern portfolio theory was introduced in a 1952 doctoral thesis by Harry Markowitz; see Markowitz model.

Modern portfolio theory

Modern portfolio theory (MPT), or mean-variance analysis, is a mathematical framework for assembling a portfolio of assets such that the expected return is maximized for a given level of risk. It is a formalization and extension of diversification in investing, the idea that owning different kinds of financial assets is less risky than owning only one type. Its key insight is that an asset's risk and return should not be assessed by itself, but by how it contributes to a portfolio's overall risk and return.

Valuation using discounted cash flows

Valuation using discounted cash flows (DCF valuation) is a method of estimating the current value of a company based on projected future cash flows adjusted for the time value of money. The cash flows are made up of those within the “explicit” forecast period, together with a continuing or terminal value that represents the cash flow stream after the forecast period. In several contexts, DCF valuation is referred to as the "income approach".

Rate of return

In finance, return is a profit on an investment. It comprises any change in value of the investment, and/or cash flows (or securities, or other investments) which the investor receives from that investment over a specified time period, such as interest payments, coupons, cash dividends and stock dividends. It may be measured either in absolute terms (e.g., dollars) or as a percentage of the amount invested. The latter is also called the holding period return.

Risk

In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environment), often focusing on negative, undesirable consequences. Many different definitions have been proposed. The international standard definition of risk for common understanding in different applications is "effect of uncertainty on objectives".

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