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Lecture

Optimal Stopping Problems: Theory and Applications

In course

MGT-484: Applied probability & stochastic processes

This course focuses on dynamic models of random phenomena, and in particular, the most popular classes of such models: Markov chains and Markov decision processes. We will also study applications in queuing theory, finance, project management, etc. ...

Description

This lecture covers optimal stopping problems in applied probability and stochastic processes, focusing on the theory and practical applications. Topics include evaluation programs, asset selling problems, dynamic programming algorithms, correlated prices, and the optimal policy for accepting offers. The instructor presents a dynamic programming algorithm to determine the optimal policy for purchasing with a deadline, considering fluctuating prices and long horizons.

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Instructor

Negar Kiyavash

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Related concepts (32)

Probability

Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking, 0 indicates impossibility of the event and 1 indicates certainty. The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that the event will occur. A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin.

Evaluation strategy

In a programming language, an evaluation strategy is a set of rules for evaluating expressions. The term is often used to refer to the more specific notion of a parameter-passing strategy that defines the kind of value that is passed to the function for each parameter (the binding strategy) and whether to evaluate the parameters of a function call, and if so in what order (the evaluation order). The notion of reduction strategy is distinct, although some authors conflate the two terms and the definition of each term is not widely agreed upon.

Lazy evaluation

In programming language theory, lazy evaluation, or call-by-need, is an evaluation strategy which delays the evaluation of an expression until its value is needed (non-strict evaluation) and which also avoids repeated evaluations (by the use of sharing). The benefits of lazy evaluation include: The ability to define control flow (structures) as abstractions instead of primitives. The ability to define potentially infinite data structures. This allows for more straightforward implementation of some algorithms.

Frequentist probability

Frequentist probability or frequentism is an interpretation of probability; it defines an event's probability as the limit of its relative frequency in many trials (the long-run probability). Probabilities can be found (in principle) by a repeatable objective process (and are thus ideally devoid of opinion). The continued use of frequentist methods in scientific inference, however, has been called into question. The development of the frequentist account was motivated by the problems and paradoxes of the previously dominant viewpoint, the classical interpretation.

Event (probability theory)

In probability theory, an event is a set of outcomes of an experiment (a subset of the sample space) to which a probability is assigned. A single outcome may be an element of many different events, and different events in an experiment are usually not equally likely, since they may include very different groups of outcomes. An event consisting of only a single outcome is called an or an ; that is, it is a singleton set. An event is said to if contains the outcome of the experiment (or trial) (that is, if ).

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