Lecture

Time Series: Forecasting and Long Memory

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In course

MATH-342: Time series

A first course in statistical time series analysis and applications. ...

Description

This lecture by the instructor covers the concepts of forecasting in time series analysis, focusing on ARIMA models and the evaluation of forecasting performance. Additionally, it delves into the notion of long memory in time series processes, discussing the characteristics of long-memory processes and their relation to self-similarity. The lecture explores the fractional differencing process, the spectral behavior of long-memory processes, and the estimation of long-memory parameters. Furthermore, it introduces ARCH models, explaining their application in capturing changes in volatility and modeling outlier behavior in financial time series. The lecture concludes with a detailed explanation of how to estimate ARCH models using conditional likelihood.

Instructor

Sofia Charlotta Olhede

I am a professor of Statistics at EPFL. I did my PhD in Mathematics at Imperial College London, and graduated in 2003. I was an assistant professor (lecturer) at Imperial College London 2002-2006, and an associate professor (senior lecturer) 2006-2007. In 2007 I moved to University College London and became a full professor. I moved to EPFL in 2019, and in 2018 I became an Institute of Mathematical Statistics Fellow with citation “For seminal contributions to the theory and application of large and heteroge

Official source

Ontological neighbourhood

Statistics

Data analysis: Time series

Related concepts (32)

Economic forecasting

Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit—or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms. Economic forecasting is a measure to find out the future prosperity of a pattern of investment and is the key activity in economic analysis.

Volatility (finance)

In finance, volatility (usually denoted by σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time, usually measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option).

Volatility smile

Volatility smiles are implied volatility patterns that arise in pricing financial options. It is a parameter (implied volatility) that is needed to be modified for the Black–Scholes formula to fit market prices. In particular for a given expiration, options whose strike price differs substantially from the underlying asset's price command higher prices (and thus implied volatilities) than what is suggested by standard option pricing models. These options are said to be either deep in-the-money or out-of-the-money.

Long-term memory

Long-term memory (LTM) is the stage of the Atkinson–Shiffrin memory model in which informative knowledge is held indefinitely. It is defined in contrast to short-term and working memory, which persist for only about 18 to 30 seconds. LTM is commonly labelled as "explicit memory" (declarative), as well as "episodic memory," "semantic memory," "autobiographical memory," and "implicit memory" (procedural memory). The idea of separate memories for short- and long-term storage originated in the 19th century.

Memory

Memory is the faculty of the mind by which data or information is encoded, stored, and retrieved when needed. It is the retention of information over time for the purpose of influencing future action. If past events could not be remembered, it would be impossible for language, relationships, or personal identity to develop. Memory loss is usually described as forgetfulness or amnesia. Memory is often understood as an informational processing system with explicit and implicit functioning that is made up of a sensory processor, short-term (or working) memory, and long-term memory.

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