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Concept

Inverse probability

Related publications (17)

Analysis of a Class of Multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithms Based on Independent Metropolis–Hastings

Fabio Nobile, Juan Pablo Madrigal Cianci

In this work, we present, analyze, and implement a class of multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo(ML-MCMC) algorithms based on independent Metropolis--Hastings proposals for Bayesian inverse problems. In this context, the likelihood function involves solving ...

2023

A t-distribution based operator for enhancing out of distribution robustness of neural network classifiers

Philip Neil Garner

Neural Network (NN) classifiers can assign extreme probabilities to samples that have not appeared during training (out-of-distribution samples) resulting in erroneous and unreliable predictions. One of the causes for this unwanted behaviour lies in the us ...

IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers2020

Context effects on probability estimation

Wei-Hsiang Lin

Many decisions rely on how we evaluate potential outcomes and estimate their corresponding probabilities of occurrence. Outcome evaluation is subjective because it requires consulting internal preferences and is sensitive to context. In contrast, probabili ...

PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE2020

A Bayesian Approach To Inter-Task Fusion For Speaker Recognition

Petr Motlicek, Subhadeep Dey

In i-vector based speaker recognition systems, back-end classifiers are trained to factor out nuisance information and retain only the speaker identity. As a result, variabilities arising due to gender, language and accent ( among many others) are suppress ...

IEEE2019

Efficient learning of smooth probability functions from Bernoulli tests with guarantees

Volkan Cevher, Ali Kavis, Paul Thierry Yves Rolland

We study the fundamental problem of learning an unknown, smooth probability function via pointwise Bernoulli tests. We provide a scalable algorithm for efficiently solving this problem with rigorous guarantees. In particular, we prove the convergence rate ...

2019

Comparing methodologies for structural identification and fatigue life prediction of a highway bridge

Ian Smith, Alain Nussbaumer, Sai Ganesh Sarvotham Pai

Accurate measurement-data interpretation leads to increased understanding of structural behavior and enhanced asset-management decision making. In this paper, four data-interpretation methodologies, residual minimization, traditional Bayesian model updatin ...

2018

Multi-Modal Mean-Fields via Cardinality-Based Clamping

François Fleuret, Pascal Fua

Mean Field inference is central to statistical physics. It has attracted much interest in the Computer Vision community to efficiently solve problems expressible in terms of large Conditional Random Fields. However, since it models the posterior probabilit ...

Ieee2017

Template-matching for text-dependent speaker verification

Petr Motlicek, Subhadeep Dey

In the last decade, i-vector and Joint Factor Analysis (JFA) approaches to speaker modeling have become ubiquitous in the area of automatic speaker recognition. Both of these techniques involve the computation of posterior probabilities, using either Gauss ...

2017

A Bayesian view of doubly robust causal inference

Léo Raymond-Belzile

In causal inference the effect of confounding may be controlled using regression adjustment in an outcome model, propensity score adjustment, inverse probability of treatment weighting or a combination of these. Approaches based on modelling the treatment ...

Oxford University Press2016

Inference for binomial probability based on dependent Bernoulli random variables with applications to meta-analysis and group level studies

Stephan Morgenthaler

We study bias arising as a result of nonlinear transformations of random variables in random or mixed effects models and its effect on inference in group-level studies or in meta-analysis. The findings are illustrated on the example of overdispersed binomi ...

Wiley-Blackwell2016

A Quickest Detection Problem With An Observation Cost

Robert Dalang

In the classical quickest detection problem, one must detect as quickly as possible when a Brownian motion without drift "changes" into a Brownian motion with positive drift. The change occurs at an unknown "disorder" time with exponential distribution. Th ...

Inst Mathematical Statistics2015

Overlapping speech detection using long-term conversational features for speaker diarization in meeting room conversations

Hervé Bourlard, Sree Harsha Yella

Overlapping speech has been identified as one of the main sources of errors in diarization of meeting room conversations. Therefore, overlap detection has become an important step prior to speaker diarization. Studies on conversational analysis have shown ...

2014

Dynamic Modeling Of Lane Distribution Impact In Complex Freeways

Nikolaos Geroliminis, André-Gilles Dumont, Sofia Samoili

Traffic dynamics have been the focal point of research aiming to provide a better understanding of traffic phenomena and to be integrated in traffic management for recurrent congestion. The aim of the study is to ameliorate complex highway and/or freeway n ...

2014

Applying Multi- and Cross-Lingual Stochastic Phone Space Transformations to Non-Native Speech Recognition

Philip Neil Garner, Hervé Bourlard, Mathew Magimai Doss, David Imseng, John David Scott Dines

In the context of hybrid HMM/MLP Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR), this paper describes an investigation into a new type of stochastic phone space transformation, which maps "source" phone (or phone HMM state) posterior probabilities (as obtained at the ...

Ieee-Inst Electrical Electronics Engineers Inc2013

A new representation for multivariate tail probabilities

Jennifer Lynne Wadsworth

Existing theory for multivariate extreme values focuses upon characterizations of the distributional tails when all components of a random vector, standardized to identical margins, grow at the same rate. In this paper, we consider the effect of allowing t ...

Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability2013

Stratégies de compromis pour l'estimation des paramètres de régression et pour la classification floue

Nicolas Fournier

Model specification is an integral part of any statistical inference problem. Several model selection techniques have been developed in order to determine which model is the best one among a list of possible candidates. Another way to deal with this questi ...

EPFL2011

Analysis of MLP Based Hierarchical Phoneme Posterior Probability Estimator

Hervé Bourlard, Mathew Magimai Doss, Hynek Hermansky, Joel Praveen Pinto

We analyze a simple hierarchical architecture consisting of two multilayer perceptron (MLP) classifiers in tandem to estimate the phonetic class conditional probabilities. In this hierarchical setup, the first MLP classifier is trained using standard acous ...

2011