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Model Uncertainty And Scenario Aggregation

Damir Filipovic, Mathieu Jacques David Cambou

This paper provides a coherent method for scenario aggregation addressing model uncertainty. It is based on divergence minimization from a reference probability measure subject to scenario constraints. An example from regulatory practice motivates the defi ...

Wiley-Blackwell2017

Robust Bounds In Multivariate Extremes

Sebastian Engelke

Extreme value theory provides an asymptotically justified framework for estimation of exceedance probabilities in regions where few or no observations are available. For multivariate tail estimation, the strength of extremal dependence is crucial and it is ...

Institute of Mathematical Statistics2017

Multi Level Monte Carlo Methods for Uncertainty Quantification and Robust Design Optimization in Aerodynamics

Michele Pisaroni

The vast majority of problems that arise in aircraft production and operation require decisions to be made in the presence of uncertainty. An effective and accurate quantification and control of the level of uncertainty introduced in the design phase and d ...

EPFL2017

Storage selection functions: A coherent framework for quantifying how catchments store and release water and solutes

Andrea Rinaldo, Enrico Bertuzzo, Paolo Benettin

We discuss a recent theoretical approach combining catchment-scale flow and transport processes into a unified framework. The approach is designed to characterize the hydrochemistry of hydrologic systems and to meet the challenges posed by empirical eviden ...

Amer Geophysical Union2015

Urban governance in earthquake struck medium-sized Haitian cities

Abigaïl-Laure Sarah Irène Kern

This paper aims to provide an insight into the urban governance of four medium-sized Haitian cities hit by the earthquake of 2010, bearing in mind two affirmations of J. Pierre on urban governance; namely, that it is the better analytical model for the con ...

2015