Publications related to Forecast skill

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and ...

Public Library Science2024

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Ntorina Thanou, Nicola Parolini, Benjamin Bejar Haro, Daniel Rodrigo Lopez, Ekaterina Krymova, Andrea Kraus, David Kraus

Background:Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive p ...

eLIFE SCIENCES PUBL LTD2023

RaFSIP: Parameterizing ice multiplication in models using a machine learning approach

Athanasios Nenes, Paraskevi Georgakaki

Accurately representing mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) in global climate models (GCMs) is critical for capturing climate sensitivity and Arctic amplification. Secondary ice production (SIP), can significantly increase ice crystal number concentration (ICNC) in ...

2024

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during early 2021

Ekaterina Krymova

Background During the COVID-19 pandemic there has been a strong interest in forecasts of the short-term development of epidemiological indicators to inform decision makers. In this study we evaluate probabilistic real-time predictions of confirmed cases an ...

Springernature2022

Waste collection inventory routing with non-stationary stochastic demands

Michel Bierlaire, Mohammad Yousef Maknoon, Sacha Varone, Iliya Dimitrov Markov

We solve a rich routing problem inspired from practice, in which a heterogeneous fixed fleet is used for collecting recyclable waste from large containers over a finite planning horizon. Each container is equipped with a sensor that communicates its level ...

PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD2020

Nowcasting lightning occurrence from commonly available meteorological parameters using machine learning techniques

Farhad Rachidi-Haeri, Marcos Rubinstein, Amirhossein Mostajabi

Article Open Access Published: 08 November 2019 Nowcasting lightning occurrence from commonly available meteorological parameters using machine learning techniques Amirhossein Mostajabi, Declan L. Finney, Marcos Rubinstein & Farhad Rachidi npj Climate and ...

2019

Implementation and Performance Analysis of the Lightning Potential Index as a Forecasting Tool

Farhad Rachidi-Haeri, Aleksandr Smorgonskii

Severe weather events are responsible for hundreds of fatalities and millions of euros of damage every year in the Mediterranean basin. Lightning activity is a characteristic phenomenon of severe weather and often accompanies torrential rainfall, which und ...

Ieee2016

An information-theoretical perspective on weighted ensemble forecasts

Steven Vincent Weijs, Nicolaas Cornelis van de Giesen

This paper presents an information--theoretical method for weighting ensemble forecasts with new information. Weighted ensemble forecasts can be used to adjust the distribution that an existing ensemble of time series represents, without modifying the valu ...

Elsevier2013

A robust framework for probabilistic precipitations downscaling from an ensemble of climate predictions applied to Switzerland

André Mermoud, Bettina Schaefli, Xavier Beuchat

Rainfall is poorly modeled by general circulation models (GCMs) and requires appropriate downscaling for local-scale hydrological impact studies. Such downscaling methods should be robust and accurate (to handle, e.g., extreme events and uncertainties), bu ...

2012

Out of Sample Forecasts of Quadratic Variation

Loriano Mancini

We compare the forecasts of Quadratic Variation given by the Realized Volatility (RV) and the Two Scales Realized Volatility (TSRV) computed from high frequency data in the presence of market microstructure noise, under several different dynamics for the v ...

2008